Chapter 615 I am young, I am not in a hurry
Gu Ao refuted Wang An’s words in person, and he summed up the meaning:
In a market with very fast growth, it is inevitable that in order to extremely please existing existing customers, it is necessary to arrange your own R&D plan strictly according to the "market research results" of their needs.
From 76 to 86 to 96 to 06, the stock of personal computers on the earth has increased ten times more every ten years, and the number of computers in 2006 is one thousand times that in 2006.
Wang An insists on one-stop packaging of closed systems and all software, with perfect compatibility. What is his motivation? It is to please the current American senior white-collar elites who use personal computers, and create the most perfect office experience for this group of people, document security and fluency.
In the development of the specific discussion, Gu Ao of course quoted a lot and also mentioned many industry cases written by Christensen, which really made the staff of the Science and Technology Commission and the computer experts from the two hospitals stunned.
After explaining this truth, they no longer waited for Wang An to react and refute, but eagerly caught Gu Ao and asked in panic, without even taking care of the face of American guests.
"Comrade Xiao Gu, do you think that if we want to develop computer operating systems, we have to take the open system route of ibm model? We can concentrate resources to do big things, but can we win ibm? As far as I know, once an open system is adopted, the biggest problem is that winners take all, and Matthew effect, we can only live one at that time.
After all, it is impossible for all software vendors to develop two versions of software for two systems for a long time. They will definitely think that one of the sets has more users, so they focus on making good use of the software on this version of the system. Even if the other competitive system is made, it is not original, but transplanted, and there will be more bugs. Over time, users will definitely become more concentrated on the best system."
The person who raised this question was a staff member of the Science and Technology Commission.
When Gu Ao heard this, he couldn't help but nodded secretly. In 1986, it was not easy for Chinese science and technology managers to tell the winners and the Matthew effect, and to deduce the following common sense.
He is a knowledgeable person, no wonder he can come to the Science and Technology Commission to get a job.
Gu Ao answered pertinently: "It is true, this comrade said it well at all. We can even say that ibm led the table to turn the table today, and it won't benefit much in the end. At that time, the 'best operating system' will win the initiative in the personal computer industry, and the 'best hardware integrator' will be backfired and eroded by other low-cost brands.
Today, the "Open Computer Project" alliance led by ibm is mainly ibm, a company integrated with the core technology component supplier, and a software system supplier Microsoft. In the future, I think Intel and Microsoft will become the biggest beneficiaries, while ibm will become a provoker in the field of personal computers, which will blow up Wang An and Apple's tables, leaving everyone with no food.
However, this is not unacceptable for ibm, because ibm's main business is mainframes and servers. Even if it cannot make money in the personal computer field in the end, it only needs to ensure that no one on earth can make a lot of money in this industry.
ibm is equivalent to completely smashing the market at the bottom of the computer user pyramid. No one can make a lot of money, and then in exchange for its dominant position in the penultimate level of the pyramid, and indirectly becoming the bottom."
As soon as this statement was made, the staff who presided over the meeting looked at each other.
Wang An also showed a look of pain.
Wang An still didn't believe Gu Ao's entire analysis, but he knew that at least Gu Ao's analysis of ibm's motivation was correct. If ibm could not get Wang An's market, he would have to overturn the table and not eat anyone.
This is not only because reason makes him believe, but also the feelings tend to make him believe that Wang An and ibm have begun their legal struggles with ibm since 1956 after he invented the hard drive.
Wang An has been fighting with ibm for a whole 30 years, so he tends to believe anyone who says bad things about ibm.
This also reduced his disgust for Gu Ao's refutation just now, and felt that Gu Ao was indeed "judging the matter".
After you scold someone, what should you do if you don’t want him to hold a grudge against you and think you are fair? Gu Ao’s example is a living textbook: after you scold him, you should beat him up and scold his enemies.
Wang An was still immersed in thought, but the meeting host asked: "Comrade Xiao Gu, since you said that at the personal computer level, there is no future in developing closed systems, and there is only one living in the world to make an open system, how should you plan to plan in this field?
Do you just break and not build up, and there is no constructive route? You can only say that this is not OK, that is not OK, but it is not the attitude we should have!"
Gu Ao sighed: "It is definitely not possible to compete with ibm head-on. This is not a problem of technology and investment, but also a problem of international situation and comprehensive national strength. Americans will not tolerate other countries to formulate this international standard. China's national strength will not be able to challenge this from the bottom within ten years, or even twenty years.
ibm's system-level partners have been occupied by Microsoft, and this position cannot be replaced by Chinese people. Even if our technology is stronger than Microsoft, ibm will not choose a Chinese company to cooperate.
We can only endure the joining of this international division of labor first. This is the helplessness of information and communication technology, because it cannot close the door to do its own and must communicate with the world's standards. Of course, the country's scientific research strength can focus on mainframes and giant machine systems above the server to retain the inertia of technical accumulation. What we endure is only the benefits of the application technology level of personal computers."
"Then you still didn't say how to do it! After saying that, this is not OK, that is not OK! After giving up this piece, you can't exchange for other bargaining chips?"
"I said that as I said just before, Wang'an Computer's route, such a closed system, will be limited to the sub-field of "business elite", and will not be able to develop into a new personal computer user group that is ten times larger in the future.
I have also said that based on the experience of the IT hardware industry in the past, every 20 years, there will be 98% of technology companies focusing on serving old customers who are finished. Wouldn't there still 2% survive? How can these 2% survive? It is to focus on serving old customers in the old era.
It’s not that old customers cannot serve, but because of the price reduction of products, the total market capacity of old customers has shrunk and they can’t afford to support so many companies, but one company can still be killed. In the future, most companies with good closed operating systems will die, but it is inevitable that one company can survive and it will not be completely killed by ibm.
What we need to care about is nothing more than the surviving one, whether it is Wang An, Apple, or other companies such as our Chinese companies. The key here is to correct our mentality and positioning. If a traditional closed system personal computer company wants to be enemies with ibm and waste resources on competing with ibm, it will die.
But if he knew to give in to ibm, endure it for years, and focus on killing apples, spetrum, and modore, then it would have the opportunity to survive the cold winter and wait for a turnaround."
Gu Ao is telling the truth. Historically, after the ibm model was launched, didn’t it just that one of them survived? However, that one of them was Apple and it didn’t live well.
Because Apple's computer sales stagnated from that moment, while the price of computers continued to decline, Apple gradually declined from the mid-to-early 1990s to the early 21st century.
Life is definitely the only one who can survive, but history will choose whether Wang An or Apple to live.
Just talking about the shortcomings of a brain axis, Wang An and Jobs are actually the same, and their thinking of insisting on the degree of system closure is the same.
It’s a pity that Wang An is of high age and is old. He got cancer 20 years earlier than Jobs and could not survive the day when the ibm model declined from prosperity.
However, Wang An was completely angry when he heard this and retorted Gu Ao:
"It's a big turn! Once technology is released from the cage, it will only improve and will not regress. The personal computer generation has completely given up. Where can we get the 'the opportunity to turn around for the next generational change'! This time I'm suppressed by ibm, I'll be suppressed by ibm forever!"
The other party was already disgraceful when he spoke like this, but he was touched by his inner grudges and was slightly disobedient.
Gu Ao didn't want to refute anymore.
Because he knew that he had convinced the meeting chairperson of the Science and Technology Commission, that was enough.
Gu Ao didn't really come to save Wang An today. He just didn't want to waste national treasury. Don't let Wang An's consultations deviate from the state's funds.
In addition, Gu Ao had long been very insightful about the motivation of "Wang An trying to establish reputation for his son."
Not to mention that Gu Ao is good at guessing the distribution of interests, the most important thing is that Gu Ao knows the historical fact that Wang An passed the throne to his son.
Therefore, what Gu Ao has to do today is to use irrefutable truths to prevent the vision of the Wang family and son from gaining recognition and fame.
Gu Ao even planned to use certain channels to reveal the fact that the Wang family and son's views on today's symposium were outdated and defeated, whether using videos, photos and recordings to Cningham, John Chambers or Wang An's senior management who was dissatisfied with father and son's succession within the computer, making them even more dissatisfied with Wang An's arrangements.
In history, Wang An asked his son to take over, but in fact he only took over for two years. Two years later, Wang An's computer was indeed ruined by Wang Lie and had an annual sales of US$3 billion, but he had no profit and lost US$700 million.
Then, Wang An remorseed before his death, and asked his son to take over the position of chairman and CEO, and found Edward Miller, an external professional manager who was best at bad restructuring, who was the best at bad restructuring, to take over the company.
It's just that Edward Miller is only good at reducing costs, enhancing performance and management, but does not understand scientific research. Therefore, although he has drasticly reduced losses, it has further damaged Wang An's R&D department, making it impossible for a new generation of products to be developed in a nutshell. Edward Miller's technique is almost the same as John Shabo's approach at Texas Instruments.
"What should I do when a technology company loses a lot? Cut the R&D department and remove all R&D costs, and the company will not lose. But once the last generation of products is behind and when it is about to be replaced, the company will die completely."
Edward Miller's deeds have not happened in this time and space yet, so there is not much water yet.
Gu Ao thought of this because he felt that since Wang An found out that his son was not good, even outsiders like Edward Miller dared to invite him to take over the company. That means that he cared more about whether the brand "Wang An" could survive than passing the throne.
Since that's the case, Gu Ao will wait until Wang An actually finds out that his son is not good, and he will come forward to collect the body. Gu Ao is always awesome than Edward Miller.
Of course, Gu Ao cannot help others manage the company. If Wang An really holds on until 1988, Gu Ao can only guarantee that the brand "Wang An" will be kept forever.
If you agree or not, let’s talk about it.
Anyway, there is no hurry now, Wang An Computer's stock price is still high now.
Chapter completed!