MAU (monthly active users) + ARPU (revenue per user)…

Back at the company, Hassan used all kinds of unintelligible professional terms and data to make Li Zhiyi understand that Twitter's valuation was indeed outrageous, but it was not too outrageous either.

Because the valuation calculation method given by Twitter is very novel, it is different from traditional calculation methods such as P/E. The specific formula is more complicated, and it can be summarized in one sentence - it is more bragging than the traditional valuation method, and the Internet

This is how the industry works...

“Moreover, after the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. dollar interest rate approached 0, the traditional bond market with stable investment value in the past is no longer attractive, and funds have flowed to the emerging venture capital market, which has intuitively led to the overvaluation of the entire VC industry.

"Hassan stood next to the projection screen and spread his hands helplessly.

Compared with the former, the second reason can better explain the problem of "overvaluation".

Li Zhiyi crossed his legs and nodded leisurely in agreement: "Recently I heard that Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are so proud that they publicly stated that we Wall Street bumpkins must go to Silicon Valley as a pilgrimage waving checks, otherwise they will not accept our investment."

In order to rescue the market and increase market liquidity, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly lowered the U.S. dollar interest rate benchmark. Originally, you could earn three yuan a year by buying a 100-yuan Treasury bond, but now you can only earn 30 cents.

When investors saw that they could not beat the inflation rate by making some money, they were playing a trick and were forced to turn to the relatively high-risk and high-return venture capital field.

If you compare good entrepreneurial projects to goddesses, venture capital institutions are like licking dogs.

As a large number of new licking dogs enter the market, competitive pressure is increasing - and prices are spontaneously driven up.

You value the goddess at two million? I value it at three million!

In short, today's venture capital market environment has quietly changed. Not only Twitter, but the entire industry is overvalued, and the bubble is coming again...

"That's true, but I don't think it means anything. Good projects are always worthy of investors' active pursuit, while "defective products" will never be paid attention to. There is no such thing as a rising tide lifts all boats." Hassan replied disdainfully.

Li Zhiyi was noncommittal and turned back to the topic and asked: "So do you think Twitter is worth pursuing?"

“In the recent general election, a girl who claimed to be a supporter of the president posted a video on the Internet, singing in support of the president. The video exceeded 10 million views in a short period of time, and took advantage of the trend.

There is an election craze on the Internet.”

"Countless young people use social products on the Internet to donate to supporters and solicit votes...I compared Twitter's data for the same period, and it gained 500,000+ new users during that period."

Hassan did not answer directly, but paused and continued: "That was the first time in history that the Internet was used for large-scale political propaganda. I think it will become the norm in the future."

"Not only politics, but also all walks of life can have chemical reactions with Internet social platforms that are far beyond imagination."

"It is true that Twitter has serious internal conflicts, and there are strong external competitors such as Facebook and YouTube, but it is one of the few choices we have at the moment."

"What he is optimistic about is not Twitter, but the entire Internet social field." Li Zhiyi held his chin in his hand and thought to himself: "This idea is okay. The market value of Facebook and YouTube is too high, and the current investment return rate is not high, so there is no money.

"

“Instagram and Sebula haven’t been launched yet, so there is no way to invest.”

“It’s embarrassing to be stuck at this time in 2009. In the previous generation, text and long video social platform giants had already become popular, but in the later period, picture social networking had not yet emerged. Looking back, only Twitter, a text-based social platform that stands taller among the dwarfs, is still there.

It can get into the eyes.”

"Text social platform...platform...cross-platform...early 2009."

Li Zhiyi's eyes suddenly lit up: "Alison, go check out an Internet application called."

"Uh... now?" Alison, who was taking meeting minutes in the corner, was a little confused.

Li Zhiyi was excited: "Yes, right now!"

Alison was already immune to her boss's "eureka" and simply walked out of the conference room holding her computer.

Hassan couldn't keep up with the train of thought: "Is this also a social product?"

"Yes, this is an acquaintance social product for smartphones, free cross-platform calls and messages. It can be used on Apple, Android, Blackberry, and all mainstream mobile phone systems on the market. As long as you register an account, you can synchronize your phone address book

Contact person." Li Zhiyi explained.

If I remember correctly, this platform was launched in 2009 and was acquired by Facebook in 2014 for about US$19 billion.

It doesn't seem to be as famous as Twitter, but the investment exit rate of return alone is definitely higher than Twitter.

Twitter is now valued at a billion dollars, but the latter has just been launched.

How could I have forgotten it!

Li Zhiyi secretly regretted it. He heard that this software was very resistant to financing. He wondered if Sequoia had entered the market...

After waiting silently for the meeting, the boss didn't speak. Hassan coughed lightly and reminded: "Ahem, what do you think about Twitter?"

"...Find some time nearby to meet with Noah Glass, the founder of Twitter, right? I'll have a chat with him." Li Zhiyi hesitated for a moment, but finally decided to meet him first.

According to the original plan, the second phase of 217's 50 million fund was mainly prepared for Twitter. Now that the investment target has been temporarily changed, even if the investment is successful, the 50 million will not be used, and the remaining money will not have any good investment targets in the short term.

Why not chat with Twitter?

"Yes, Noah, he first founded an Internet company called Odeo, but when the development was not ideal, he switched to Twitter. In 2006, his neighbor Evan Williams was optimistic about Twitter and made early investment with additional conditions.

Ask to be CEO.”

"So far, they have serious internal strife. The CEO has been changed twice. During this period, Noah ousted Evan. After the C round of financing, Evan got the support of shareholders and took back the CEO position." Hassan said in an incredible tone.

introduced.

He has been a venture capital investor for 20 years, what kind of startup company has he not seen?

I have never seen this like Twitter... The founders are fighting among themselves and beating the dog's head off, and they can still develop strongly.

Li Zhiyi also found it difficult to understand: "What is the reason for their internal fighting? Is it just an employee faction?"

"Evan is a typical elitist who likes to discuss and cooperate, while Noah is from a grassroots background and is used to making decisions on his own. Differences in ideas are a big problem." Hassan whispered the second half of the sentence softly.

Li Zhiyi held his chin and thought for a while: "Evan hopes to introduce us to invest, but Evan is opposed... I want to know who the shareholders behind Evan are to support him. You can check it later."

Being able to quote such an outrageous and brainless valuation of US$1 billion proves that Evan is very strong within the company, and people have made it clear that he does not need investment.

The composition of Twitter's shareholders is very complex, including some big names in venture capital, and it is easy to offend others by forcing entry on your own.
Chapter completed!