Chapter 91: The Planner's First Practice
Ye Zhou slept from afternoon to around two o'clock in the middle of the night. When he got up, it was already dark outside.
He rubbed his head and climbed out of bed. He took a look outside first and found that Ye Lan was still awake. She was squatting in front of the screen in the hall, fiddling with her financial model.
"Why are you still up so late? Can't you do it tomorrow?"
Ye Lan looked back at him and replied indifferently:
"Hey, I'm not sleepy. I don't have any classes during this period. It's okay to sleep late. Brother, look, this is the data I imported from the financial game around chip stocks some time ago. There is a conclusion. Do you know what it is?
"
"What is it?"
Ye Zhou poured himself a glass of water and sat on the sofa next to Ye Lan.
"The conclusion is that we were able to win this time, and it was actually very lucky. The total amount of funds we invested reached nearly 100 billion soft sister coins, but the chips thrown by the opponent in the final stage to smash the market were only more than 28 billion."
"However, under such a comparison of funds, many stocks that were originally extremely strong are showing signs of being smashed, which shows that there is still a big gap between us and our opponents in terms of operations."
Ye Zhou nodded, then shook his head.
"There is definitely a technical gap, but it is not accurate to say that we won by luck, because the 100 billion investment you saw is not because we only have 100 billion, but because we invested 100 billion
enough."
"I believe that if the other party continues to resist, it would not be surprising if the authorities continue to invest another 100 billion."
After listening to Ye Zhou's words, Ye Lan sighed and replied:
"It's not unreasonable for you to say that, but in my opinion, this is actually not a good thing."
"Look, let me give you an example. Funds on the financial battlefield are equivalent to soldiers on the battlefield. We invested a thousand soldiers, but barely defeated the opponent's 300 soldiers. Do you think this will be a good thing?
?"
"And more importantly, funds have no difference in equipment, physical strength, etc. The only reason for such results is that there is something wrong with our strategy."
"We failed to make good use of these one thousand soldiers, resulting in a large number of soldiers' lives being wasted."
Ye Zhou's brows wrinkled, and he knew what Ye Lan said was right.
On any battlefield, strategy and tactics are factors that can greatly affect the outcome. Taking the war at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China as an example, the reason why we were able to withstand the advantage of being crushed by the opponent's equipment was that we completely lost it.
After gaining control of the air and sea, we can also drive the opponent back to his hometown. In addition to the unrepentant sacrifice of the soldiers, there is another most important reason.
That is the tactics used by our world's top light infantry.
Or to be more specific, it is the three-by-three system in frontal conflicts, rapid maneuvering when changing battlefields, and night fighting capabilities that do not rely on night vision equipment.
This ultra-advanced level tactic, which is almost equivalent to a dimensionality reduction strike, directly bridged the gap in equipment and logistics, making our side famous in one battle and standing at the pinnacle of the world's light infantry system.
In fact, the so-called special forces such as SEALs, SAS, and Delta in later generations are still far behind that army in terms of light infantry tactics.
After thinking for a moment, he asked:
"You're right...so you want to analyze their strategies and then use them to us?"
Ye Lan shook his head and replied:
"No, it is unrealistic and impractical to take it directly. What I want is to find the key elements of their strategy, such as the actions they will take when a certain indicator reaches a certain range."
"There are many indicators in financial transactions. Each indicator is an indirect response to market sentiment and the capital operation behind it. If we can analyze the connection between indicators and operations and solidify it, then we can predict the other party.
Please make preparations in advance for the operation.”
"Even further, we can artificially create a certain indicator, and then let them think that the conditions are ripe and step into our trap."
Ye Zhou had never studied economics systematically and was confused by the concepts proposed by Ye Lan, so he had to ask:
"How about you give me a more specific example? I don't really understand."
Ye Lan pulled a piece of paper from one side and wrote on it:
"Brother, look, I'll use the simplest example of trading volume per minute. When the other party was operating the stock of Ziguang Group, 5 times out of 10, once the minute trading volume dropped below 2,000 lots, it would
He began to throw out chips at any cost, hoping to use excess chips to open the daily limit."
"Then the same goes for Huaxing's stock. When the minute trading volume is below 5,000 lots, they begin to sell. The ratio is about 6 out of 10 times."
"So, the high probability of minute trading volume is an indicator they use to judge, but I don't know what the specific judgment conditions are. To analyze it, it requires a huge amount of data and experiments, and to rule out conditions one by one.
Aren’t I just testing it?”
"I have already eliminated dozens of them overnight, and there are still at least hundreds of conditions to be eliminated, and this is just an indicator of minute trading volume..."
Ye Lan's face looked a little tired, but Ye Zhou became energetic after listening to her words.
Isn't this an opportunity to experiment with the "Planner" talent that comes to your door?
Although he doesn't know much about finance, as long as Ye Lan explains the inner logic clearly to himself and understands the source of each indicator, he should still be able to have a certain basis for judgment.
Thinking of this, he immediately said:
"List all the indicators and conditions you want to measure, and then tell me the logic and principles, and I'll see if I can help you with your advice."
Ye Lan glanced at him suspiciously and asked with some disbelief:
"Brother, is this really okay? You are not a professional..."
"It's okay, one method will work for all. Doesn't your experiment have exactly the same principle as the control variable method in our experiment? They are just data experiments. Let's get started. Finish it early and go to bed early!"
Ye Lan thought for a moment and finally agreed with Ye Zhou's statement.
So, in this empty reception hall, Ye Lan started a popular science lecture on financial transactions.
From trading volume, to price, to moving averages, to turnover rate, to boll, mike, se... various indicators made Ye Zhou dizzy, but fortunately, there is something behind these indicators.
The logic is not complicated and is not too difficult for an engineering student like Ye Zhou to understand.
After figuring out the principles of all indicators, Ye Lan began to list possible operation trigger conditions on paper. While Ye Zhou read the conditions she wrote, he combined her explanation to review the details of the opponent's operation at that time, trying to find out the opponent's
The connection between operations and these indicators.
Time passed by minute by second, and when Ye Lan pointed at the turnover rate, Ye Zhou suddenly felt something in his heart.
The urge to trigger the "Planner" talent in the simulator came back to me.
Ye Zhou suddenly realized.
The so-called "planner" is actually a judgment based on intuition.
It is not without foundation, but is a judgment made after the analyst has understood all the principles and based on these principles directly skips the analysis process.
This is like marching to fight a war. A general may not know how attacking a certain pass will affect his entire body and create huge fighter opportunities, but he just wants to fight and resolutely implements this goal.
In history, the most classic battlefield command case based on such intuition was the crossing of Chishui River four times.
Ye Zhou put away his thoughts, pointed at the turnover rate indicator and said:
"Turnover rate should be a key indicator. In addition, transaction volume and average transaction amount are also among them. I suggest you start with these three indicators and conduct a composite analysis. You will probably get the results quickly."
After hearing what Ye Zhou said, Ye Lan's eyes lit up.
"It seems so...wait a minute, I kind of figured it out. This confrontation happened when the stock had reached its daily limit, so the core factor is market confidence. The three indicators you mentioned are completely
It is an intuitive reflection of market confidence!”
"Wait a minute, I want to test it. According to this logic, the impact of these three indicators is linear, but the weights are different, so the scope of the test will be reduced a lot..."
Ye Lan was talking to herself while operating the computer, completely ignoring Ye Zhou who had just given her some advice. Ye Zhou couldn't disturb her, so he could only turn around and go to the kitchen to prepare some midnight snacks.
When he prepared the midnight snack and brought it to Ye Lan, she was still immersed in the world of data. Ye Zhou shook his head and turned back to his room.
...
Early the next morning, Ye Zhou was awakened by an earth-shattering cheer. He quickly got up and ran out the door, and Ye Lan also ran towards him with excitement on his face.
"Brother! It's really like this! It's really the composite of these three indicators! I've already calculated it! Their operating strategies are always consistent, and all transactions have only slight deviations!"
"I also analyzed their operations in other markets, and you know what? They use this logic in all their transactions!"
"I guess they have never changed it! They will not change it in the future!"
"This Blackstone Fund, at least in this small area, they have no secrets! I will continue to test and see how they operate in other aspects as well, but further down the line, the difficulty will be much smaller!
"
Ye Lan's eyes were bloodshot, but her expression was extremely excited.
Ye Zhou glanced at her distressedly, then looked at the bowl of noodles he had put on the table last night.
Not even a bite was touched.
------Digression-----
Chapter 5 today is 12,000, and starting tomorrow it will be 10,000.
Chapter completed!