Xie Qian was really unsure, and he had previously submitted a memorial with the theme of "stop the war", which made Xie Qian unable to help but want to ask Chen Xi and listen to his opinions.

Chen Xi asked, "Does the old man want to hear the truth or flatter him?"

Xie Qian couldn't help but say annoyedly: "I told you how likely you have to win? Could it be that you still have to cheat? If you are unsure, just say a rough number. I will think about it... Listen to your flattery first!"

Some things cannot stand scrutiny. After hearing Chen Xi's words, Xie Qian thought Chen Xi was trying to make excuses, but after a little thought, he realized that if Chen Xi wanted to fool, just say 50% or 60% of them, there is no need to beat around the bush.

Then Chen Xi's words must have mystery.

Chen Xidao: "Since it is a flattery, in my younger generation, I, the Ming Dynasty, have a chance of winning in this battle with sufficient preparations."

"You boy, this is your flattery? I have been preparing for war in the Ming Dynasty for a long time, with sufficient food and supplies, and fully equipped artillery. The strong military force is unprecedented in decades. You said that there is only 70 to 80% chance of winning? If people in the world hear this, saliva can drown you!"

Xie Qian was a little disdainful.

Chen Xi asked back: "Who the elder believes that this battle should be 90% or even full of confidence?"

Only then did Xie Qian realize that he was asking Chen Xi for his opinion.

Chen Xi said that he had 70% or 80% chance of winning, but it was finally reasonable and he felt a little more at ease, but this "70% or 80% chance of winning" was based on "flattery".

Xie Qian said: "You continue to say it!"

"Since the Master said that I have been preparing for war in the Ming Dynasty for a long time and have prepared all the soldiers and food, how dare I ask, in the previous few wars, my Ming soldiers were short of enough troops. The soldiers were hungry and holding unblack weapons to the battlefield?" Chen Xi asked, and then added: "For example, in the 14th year of Zhengtong, Yingzong led a 500,000 army out of the frontier..."

Xie Qian said dissatisfiedly: "Why do you always talk about our dynasty by the Tumu Fort? Today is different from the past. The Oirat had long been weak due to civil strife, and the Tatars had been fighting in the past. In addition, our side had the advantage of artillery fire, aren't these all the causes of victory?"

Chen Xi sighed lightly: "As the assistant minister, the Ge Lao should know better about the preparations for military food and grass than the younger generation. Although the amount of food and grass supplies is sufficient, it is not a question of a fundamental improvement. The victory point of our Ming Dynasty is the internal disputes of the Tatars. But I dare to ask that the Tatars' civil war has been the upper hand for several years, but the Dayan tribe has long been unable to exterminate the tribes such as fire screens, but why is it?"

Xie Qian thought for a while: "How can I know about Beiyi?"

"It's not difficult to understand, it's just that the old master doesn't want to say it..."

Chen Xi analyzed: "The fundamental reason for the civil strife of Tatars is to compete for the position of the Mongolian Khan. Even if the Dayan tribes hard to calm down the Mongolian tribes in the south of the desert, they still have to face potential opponents such as Urianha and Ola. They are full of dangers, and they are trembling with each step, like walking on thin ice, and will never be willing to do their best in one battle."

"No matter how powerful the Dayan tribe is, it has only a population of tens of thousands. The living environment on the grassland is harsh. Even if there are several generations, the population of the Dayan tribe will not increase significantly. The population remains unchanged. How can it occupy all the grasslands? What they want to gain is only the status of the overlord of the grassland, and make the rest of the tribes obey orders."

"But the Fire Screening Department and the other tribes were unwilling to wait for death. They fought with the Dayan tribe. Although they were at a disadvantage, due to the particularity of the grassland, they still had the capital to maintain the existence of the tribe."

"The several parties have been fighting for many years, and it is a time when people are trapped and horses are exhausted. However, due to face, no one is willing to give up easily and bow down to his subordinates. At this time, there must be external conflicts to make compromises among all internal parties. And our Ming Dynasty sent troops to the Dayan tribe and Huosie tribes to rebuild it."

"At that time, the Dayan tribe will take the Ming tree as a target and promise that the various benefits after defeating the Ming Dynasty will be quickly established as the overlord of the grassland. Once all the Tatar tribes are transferred, with the power of the Mongolian cavalry, the cabinet master should be very clear about what the situation will be."

"Since the elders mentioned the artillery introduced by the younger generation from the Folang Ji people, then the younger generation will also say it. The Folang Ji cannon seems powerful, but the attack range is limited. You can attack it by chance, but you cannot fight in close combat. Once the Tatar cavalry is prepared, disperse the formation, use flange, or take the detour to attack the rear, the artillery is heavy and difficult to turn the gun mouth. Just attack with a fast horse, and the enemy and us are entangled together, and the artillery will lose its place of use."

"Finally, let's talk about the way of using troops. There are many nobles in the northwest, and most of the officers and soldiers are hereditary military households. Our Central Plains dynasty built the Great Wall, fortresses, cities, and relied on the geographical advantage to deal with the barbarians in the north. Since ancient times, facing the threat of the northern nomadic peoples, the Central Plains dynasty has adopted a defensive force. Even if they advance straight into the wolf's servant, they will retreat to the Great Wall in a short time. At that time, the people's wealth has been exhausted and the gains are not worth the loss."

"This battle with Beiyi is like a rich man guarding the high-walled courtyard and keeping his family's wealth. If he opens the door and fights with the bandits outside the courtyard wall, it is good to win. The bandits can be eliminated in a short time, and the high-walled courtyard can be safe. But if he loses, he will destroy the wall and give the bandits a good opportunity to take advantage of the situation!"

Speaking of this, Shen Xi summarized: "In this battle, it is actually better not to fight."

After listening to Shen Xi's analysis, Xie Qian felt something was reasonable, but he still couldn't help but scold: "You kid, you just like to increase the ambition of the barbarians and destroy your majesty, which is simply unreasonable! From your opinion, according to the actual situation, how likely is my chance of winning in this battle of the Ming Dynasty?"

Shen Xidao: "If the troops are withdrawn in time and they will win, the chances of victory should be 70%. If you want to win the feat of Fenglangjuxu in this battle and use this as a victory, there will be no chance of victory; if you confront each other head-on, the purpose of annihilation of the opponent's vitality is less than 50%..."

Xie Qian slapped the table and said sternly: "Then ask you, if our army sends troops and the Tatars are defeated step by step, our army will kill more than 10,000 enemies, and our morale will be greatly boosted... Even if you lose yourself above the Tatars, I ask you, how likely is there to win?"

Shen Xi thought about it and said a relatively objective number: "30%!"

...

...

When Shen Xi said the numbers, Xie Qian's face turned extremely ugly.

If Shen Xi's analysis was unreasonable and he could just say a number, then Xie Qian could be regarded as a joke. However, Xie Qian listened to Shen Xi's analysis with reasonable evidence, and even took into account the cause and effect of the Tatar civil strife. After this analysis, he came up with a "30% chance of winning", which made him feel an inexplicable pressure.

This is a war without a way out, and it is also the choice of Emperor Hongzhi to do his own thing. No one can stop this war from happening.

Xie Qian did not scold Shen Xi. He had a bad attitude before, so he wanted to make Shen Xi analyze it more rationally. Now his tone was calm and he asked, "What about the other 70%?"

"The other 70% depends on whether the troops led the troops can bring back our Ming army from the battlefield. If the withdrawal encounters obstacles, there will be no reinforcements in the future. The generals who are left behind will not have the determination to fight to the end. The defeat that did not happen three years ago may be inevitable!" Chen Xi answered helplessly.

Xie Qian suddenly became angry and shouted, "If I had known this, I might as well send you to the battlefield! You are very aware of this, but you wouldn't have volunteered to serve the court?"

"Do you know what Liu Shiyong is going to let you do? Let you be the pioneer, attract the attention of the Tatars, and continue to gather Tatar soldiers and horses around you like a magnet. Then he calmly commands and dispatches troops to form a counter-encirclement, laying the opportunity for victory in one fell swoop!"

"If one person exchanged for the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers in the Ming Dynasty and ensuring the peace of the people in the Central Plains, what's the point of sacrifice?"

In Shen Xi's opinion, his life belongs only to himself, and others cannot trade his life. Although he doesn't want to hear this, he feels that Xie Qian's analysis is correct. Chen Xi knows that when he goes to the northwest, he is still a confidential job like the governor of Yansui, which is helpful to the final result.

Emperor Hongzhi was not bound by Chen Xi's qualifications and age in this regard, so his choice was quite accurate.

Xie Qian defamed justice for his selfishness, and Chen Xi also chose the latter in front of the country and his own life.

Chen Xidao: "Don't be angry, it's too early to say that everything is. The person who led the army was Shangshu Liu. The Ming Dynasty's troops had not moved, and the Tatars were no longer moving now..."

Xie vented his anger and said, "You kid, you have told me so much, and now you want to clear the relationship? Don't forget that I have also made my own judgment. I have been anxious recently and always feel that there may be something wrong with this. Now I think about it, this chance of winning is far beyond the expectations of His Majesty."

"If you have a chance of winning sixty or seventy percent, you can expect this battle, but if it is only two or three percent... I thank Yu Qiao, I don't want to be a sinner in the Ming Dynasty!"

After saying that, Xie Shang had the urge to write a book with his pen.

Of course, Chen Xi knew what Xie Qian was going to do, so he naturally advised the emperor to "stop the war". According to the plan proposed by Chen Xi before, he would pretend to attack and be finished. Why do you have to act seriously?

But Chen Xi knew that if Xie Qian committed suicide by Yan Xun's memorial and made direct suggestions, it would be purely unhappy.

A memorial made the emperor lose face. Zhu Youzhang was still angry and immediately came up with another one, almost like adding fuel to the fire.

"Please think twice before you act!"

Chenxidao, "Instead of admonishing Your Majesty, it is better to write a book to the three sides. The key analysis and analysis of Liu Shangshu knows that the so-called general will not accept the orders of the king outside. Even if Your Majesty is determined to fight, as long as Liu Shangshu will stop when he sees it, then my Ming army can win and return. This is the best strategy."

"Otherwise, the cabinet master cannot ask His Majesty to take back his life and take care of himself, why bother?"

Xie Qian was also confused by worry and fear. He calmly thought about Chen Xi's words and thought it made sense.

If you write a memorial to the emperor again, it does seem that he is loyal, but it is useless. The emperor will still send troops to send troops, but he will hate him very much. Not only will the memorial not help the soldiers of the three armies, but the people of the world will harm him, which is really unwise.

But letting him write a book to Liu Daxia was unable to expose his face for a while.

Thinking of the fact that he had turned against Liu Daxia before, it was all because of Chen Xi. Now he realized that Liu Daxia had no fault in sending Chen Xi to the northwest. There was still a big difference between having Chen Xi and not having Chen Xi in the northwest. It was not that Liu Daxia used the excuse to make things difficult for him.

As the wrong party, Xie Qian took the initiative to write this letter, which was equivalent to slapping himself in the face.

Dilemma! (To be continued.)
Chapter completed!