“So we tend to think that in a longer period of time, subprime loans will become extremely dangerous.”

Listening to Vivian telling her analysis and finally giving a very conservative estimate... Su Yuanshan did not make any statement - after all, those who engage in investment banks are all top people, whether it is IQ or the so-called emotional intelligence - observing words and expressions, analyzing psychology is a basic fuck. Since she asked her to analyze, it naturally means that she is paying attention to the subprime mortgage with a disapproving attitude...

As long as Vivian grasps her own psychology, she will naturally be able to respond "correctly".

This doesn't count - even if she speaks very well.

But who can’t tell me about this in finance?

"How long is the longer cycle?" Seeing that Vivian was waiting for his reaction nervously, Su Yuanshan asked after pondering for a few seconds.

"This..." Seeing that Su Yuanshan's expression was still focused and scrutinized, Vivian knew that she was obviously not satisfied with her "answer" from her "answer".

So she became more nervous...

At this time, Sun Xihui, who was standing by, coughed gently and laughed: "Do you want to eat some fruit? I'll go and ask me to get some."

Su Yuanshan nodded: "Then I'll have some mangoes."

"Okay, Xiaowei wants an apple, right?"

...

After Sun Xihui's interruption, Su Yuanshan also realized that he might put a little pressure on people - so he smiled gently and said, "Don't think too much, just give your first impression and judgment."

"Okay." Vivian also calmed down and smiled: "Actually, as far as I am concerned, I am still optimistic about the free financial market. After all, this is what we learn. But historical experience tells us that in finance, it is best not to believe in experience, otherwise we will lose a lot."

"Ha, well said!" This sentence won Su Yuanshan's recognition.

Vivian smiled: "For example, during the Asian financial crisis, several companies lost badly - who would have thought that the north would default on debt? Then the money returned objectively caused the birth and burst of the Internet bubble - and after the bursting of the Internet bubble, a large amount of capital was looking for new profit targets, and thus the subprime mortgage was born. From this point of view, the subprime mortgage itself has become bubbled..."

"But we know that the economic bubble may not break sometimes - or by chance, for example, in the history of the Internet, a large number of stocks from newbook, Microsoft, Xinghai, Cisco and other technologies and Internet companies appeared on Monday. These big sell orders worth more than $2 billion directly triggered the follow-up sell-offs from others, and then became the fuse for the collapse of technology stocks..."

"Sometimes, the bubble needs people to poke it to break it - for example, in the peaceful environment of 8,90 years, Southeast Asia underwent technology and capital transfers from developed countries, especially Ni. While the Ni economy entered a downward trend at the end of the last century, the yen was flowing back one after another, Soros and others came to add fire... Then the economies of the Four Little Tigers could not withstand it - they were different from HK in the financial crisis. They were purely fat, and HK was a system issue."

"So, if you ask me the specific time, I really don't know how to answer - maybe, the Americans can digest the bubble directly? But if someone pokes, then I think that in the next two to three years, if Western capital still cannot find a better way out, then the subprime loan model will come to an end. After all, it is positively related to housing prices. And we cannot assume that the Americans can accept the continuous rise in housing prices..."

Hearing this, Su Yuanshan finally smiled.

not bad.

*

*

"Vivian still believes too much in the self-regulation ability of the free economy market, but it's not her fault. After all, she learned this one--well, I admit that this one can explain many things, and it is also the most effective at present."

After sending Vivian away, Su Yuanshan and Sun Xihui sat in the back garden to have tea and chat.

He put down his teacup and lay on the beach chair, completely relaxing: "She still can't jump out of her identity after all."

"Who can easily jump out of your identity when you say this? Do you think everyone looks like you..." Sun Xihui skillfully cut a mango into two, then shaved off the mango core, then gently scratched the inside of the mango flesh with the tip of the knife, and drew a small square, and then she gently put on the skin, and these small squares became bulging.

She handed the mango to Su Yuanshan, pulled a napkin and wiped her hands and smiled, "What should I do next? Poke?"

"Well, I must poke...but it's not us."

Su Yuanshan ate the mango diced rice and looked at the peel. There was no trash can.

"Just throw it to the ground and let someone sweep it later."

"Okay, you said." Su Yuanshan wiped his lips and smiled: "The subprime mortgage crisis is just a fuse. If only a few capitalists go bankrupt, it is nothing... If this affects the confidence of bulk capital and then expands to the personal consumption capacity and confidence of the United States, then this will be troublesome... We must admit that under the premise that the US dollar is still dominated by the world today, the United States' market is still the largest market, which is related to the global economy."

"There is a popular saying that when the Americans catch a cold, the whole world will sneeze. This sentence is so fucking right - for us, we even have a fever... After all, our foreign exchange reserves are almost all US dollars now."

Sun Xihui blinked: "What about?"

"Then let's see how bad it would be if the whole world's economy was tied to one country."

"So who's going to poke?"

"Wait a little longer, wait for them to brag a little bit, and you must keep paying attention. In addition to the size of the subprime loan market itself, there are also various default rates, housing price expectations, etc., which will take at least more than half a year of data."

"As for who will come...that of course we will save our old friend again."

——Because Qin Si was born in Malaya, whether it was Star Sea or Oak Tree, his relationship with Malaya is not an ordinary intimacy.

In addition, Su Yuanshan made two moves to help Morgan Stanley shut down the pit - once avoiding Russia's debt default, and once allowing them to achieve the greatest success in the Internet bubble.

It can be said that... If it weren't for not being able to invite Su Yuanshan, Damo and the guys who got into the eyes of money would definitely invite Su Yuanshan to take charge of Damo.

Of course, Su Yuanshan is willing to "help" them again for such a relationship.

——Well, in fact, in history, Morgan Stanley was the first to pay attention to the risks of the subprime mortgage bubble and published an investigation report, which then caused a chain reaction, eventually bursting the bubble and triggering the subprime mortgage crisis.

*

*

In the next two days, Su Yuanshan went to the Hong Kong government again. After returning, he went to Silicon Core, IVideo and ATV for a walk. In the last battle, he went to the "Yuan Core Academy of Asian Sciences" located in Cyberport.

In the Asian Academy of Sciences, Su Yuanshan met Zhang Yitang who was walking with his wife.

"Hello Professor Su."

Zhang Yitang's wife first greeted Su Yuanshan, and finally the increasingly fashionable woman made a fist-holding move: "Congratulations to Professor Su for winning the Nobel Prize in Physics."

"Haha, I'm happy to show you? Where can I learn this kind of trick?" Since Su Yuanshan brought Zhang Yitang back, he has not met with him many times, but he usually communicates on emails. Su Yuanshan knew that the other party was a pure boss, so he held the mentality of not using it for nothing and wasted a lot of wisdom to get Zhang Yitang for free.

"She must be from TV shopping." Zhang Yitang stood still, explained for his wife with a smile, then looked at Su Yuanshan with emotion: "Professor Su, this Nobel Prize is really not easy."

"Haha, some people even say it's too simple... Let's go, senior brother, let's go?"

Seeing that the two men had something to say, his wife looked around and saw Wen Xiaoqian, so she pulled Wen Xiaoqian behind them and started chatting.

...

"Are you still used to it here? When I was giving a speech at the University of Hong Kong that day, I thought I could see you." Su Yuanshan put his hands in his pocket and walked slowly with Zhang Yitang.

After Lao Zhang was fooled by him, he first entered the Asian Academy of Sciences, and then went to Hong Kong University to teach according to his own wishes. The associate professor, Lao Zhang, was very satisfied with this.

After all, compared with the "utilitarian" nature of the mainland, the pressure here is indeed less.

Moreover, after returning to Hong Kong, the longer Zhang Yitang stayed in a state of mind, the more he realized how terrifying Yuanxin, or Su Yuanshan's influence was in China and even Asia. He did not go to the speech at the Hong Kong University, but went to Niguo to attend a pure math conference.

Let’s just say that, with Su Yuanshan’s identity as “inviting him back”, he has gained unexpected respect.

Whenever he realized this, although Zhang Yitang thought that he should give it to a gentleman and just accept it calmly, he still felt that... he had not made any achievements and was still a little sorry for the treatment given by Su Yuanshan.

"Last time I went to Niguo, we happened to be in a staggered way." Zhang Yitang walked slowly with his arms in his arms, and said slowly, "But even if I am here, I can only give you some advice. I can't understand anything about your profession."

"Haha, actually, I didn't talk about physics at all, I was bragging with my students." Su Yuanshan said and shrugged: "It's just to tell students to stay interested, focus, and not to have any pressure to love science."

"Especially in China, in the past... we paid too much attention to the results that could be changed by the naked eye. Well... well, here is to put aside the mess of relationships like this - but overall, in the past, the domestic attitude towards academics was to not raise idle people."

Hearing this, Zhang Yitang couldn't help but nodded slightly: "Well said!"

Su Yuanshan smiled slightly: "But isn't science promoted and established by those 'idlers' in history? Which of those wise men is not idler?"

"Especially pure science, how can you determine dead tasks? If you really need to determine tasks, you can do everything, then I will give you a billion, and you can prove the Goldbach conjecture for me."

Zhang Yitang smiled.
Chapter completed!