Chapter 161 The storm is coming

July 15, 1997 was originally an ordinary Tuesday, but this day would be remembered by the entire East Asia for many years. After many days of tug-of-war, under the strong pressure of the Western powers behind hedge funds, the Thai Chawali government, although accepted the repeated persuasion of the governments of China, Hong Kong, Singapore and other countries, was still forced to decide to lift the military control for nearly three months and relax all restrictions in the financial field. The hedge funds that were so angry that they sang triumphant songs and flew into the spot and forward markets of the Thai baht foreign exchange and began to sell shorts.

The Thai government obviously underestimated the energy of hedge funds. Under the pressure of short selling of up to 100 billion US dollars, the central bank's foreign exchange reserves of less than 20 billion US dollars obviously did not play a role in resisting the pressure of the Thai baht depreciation. On Saturday, July 19, the Thai Finance Minister suddenly proposed to resign, probably he had already understood that he was unable to make a comeback. But his thought of making a resignation declaration on the weekend and trying to give the Thai government some buffering time was soon shattered. On Monday, July 21, the financial storm that had been delayed for 20 days was still as violent as expected.

On this day, the news of the resignation of the Finance Minister triggered speculation in the financial community that the Thai baht might depreciate, causing the Thai baht exchange rate to plummet to around 28 baht per dollar. The Thai stock market also fell from 1,200 points at the beginning of the year to 461.32 points, the lowest point in eight years, and the financial market was in chaos. On July 23, the Thai central bank suddenly announced that it had abandoned the exchange rate policy of palleting the US dollar that had been insisting on for 14 years and implemented a managed floating exchange rate system. At the same time, the central bank also announced that it would raise the interest rate from 10.5% to 12.5%. The Thai baht fell 17% on the same day, setting a new low, and there was room for further decline. At this moment, all financial traders from Seoul to Singapore had a feeling that a surging storm was coming.

When the Thai government announced the abolishment of military control, Yang Xing knew that the opportunity for a long time had finally arrived. At this time, he was sitting in the old foreign building of the Xinhua News Agency Hong Kong Branch in Wan Chai District, looking at a demonstration team outside the iron art gate of Xinhua News Agency with interest. The team was holding banners such as "Oppose public intervention in the Hong Kong economy!" "Get out of the economic tsar!" Gao Yixin explained to him with a wry smile: "The dual act of the central government and the Hong Kong government is too obvious, no wonder some people can't sit still. The good idea that Zhuge, the little Zhuge behind the scenes, gave the big boss, you hide here and live happily, and it is hard for us to take the blame."

In early July, the Hong Kong government repeatedly used heavy blows to crack down on foreign exchange speculation in the financial market. People were panicked for a while, which led to the stock market, which was already rising all the way, and it had already caused investors to complain. Unexpectedly, on July 7, all Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong issued warnings at the same time, proposing unoptimistic predictions on the second half of the year. Recently, Xingdou Research Institute, which has been slandering Southeast Asia's economic prospects, also joined hands with Star Weekly Publishing House, a subsidiary of Star Manpower, to launch "Asia".

The continuous report of Economic Issues was published in five weeks in one go, and economists such as Roubini, Krugman, and Lang Xianping criticized the Southeast Asian economy, and articles predicting the coming of the crisis were published everywhere. This caused a huge decline in market confidence, and the stock index fell rapidly like a slide. The stock investors whose wallets turned weak pointed their anger at the central government behind the red-chip stocks (Chinese stocks) in their minds and the Stardou Research Institute, which was accused of the stock market. So the scene of investors marching and demonizing in front of the Hong Kong branch of Xinhua News Agency.

Yang Xing smiled and took the conversation and said, "They are grasshoppers in the autumn and can't jump for a few days. I just received a call. The Thai government has just lifted financial controls. The building will be collapsed no longer has the power to save. I just hope that Hong Kong will be more prepared. Although it is uncomfortable to squeeze the bubble in the stock market, it will be better than to rush to jump off the building!"

The senior high school senior looked solemn, "We have done all our efforts, and now we can only wait for the final result. Let's leave our people to fate!" Yang Xing smiled and said without changing his smile: "This is not like what the ** people who believe in Marxism-Leninism say. I don't believe in any fatalism. I only know that if I don't take the lead in this storm, I will definitely be swallowed up. I will use the financial crisis to make money this time, and the central government will not criticize me for being jealous of money!"

The first-year high school senior smiled, "You are still afraid of making gossips! No wonder the big boss said that you are a guy who can't get up early without profit. This time he asked me to tell you that given the favorable information you provided some time ago and your identity as a benefiting official and the people, as long as you do not harm national interests and make legal profits with the resources in your hands, it is a natural right of a businessman, and we will never interfere!" Yang Xing smiled happily. With the Sword of Shangfang, he can finally let go.

He remembers clearly that during the financial storm, countries strictly investigate foreign exchange trading transactions and record each transaction in detail. Although he bypassed the supervision of most countries through various channels, he could still find clues in Hong Kong, where he is headquartered. He had to consider that after the storm, many financial speculators were declared unpopular and unpopular by governments and were declared unpopular and severely investigated. Yang Xing did not expect to be stared at by others. Finally, this time he made every effort to help the Hong Kong government and the central government to pay for the value of the agency.

On the day when Thailand announced its floating exchange rate, Yang Xing and many of his subordinates watched the game in the presidential suite of the Fulihua Hotel. As soon as the Singapore International Currency Trading Market opened in the morning, the Thai baht exchange rate fell 13% in a blink of an eye. The bulls who were unwilling to fail had a huge amount of buy orders, trying to pull back the decline. The fierce battle between the bulls and bears began immediately.

This is the first time that most of the girls have seen this kind of financial war without gunpowder. Those traders who have not had a good sleep in a few days also cheered up and explained the mystery to them. After explaining a lot of technical terms, they gradually gained some basic common sense. They only saw the tens of billions of dollars trading on the computer screen, and the huge amount of money was destroyed in an instant. Their moods were like roller coasters. Guo Ying and Wang Yiren, the most economically stinging only felt their hearts twitching. When they saw the vertical fall of the Thai baht exchange rate, Guo Ying put his finger on his pulse, feeling that it was beating extremely fast, and he exclaimed. No wonder someone caused a heart attack in the stock market. This was really exciting!

Yang Xing was mentally prepared for this and could not change his face. On July 8, all the 1.1 billion US dollars he raised in the second round of financing had been received, and the remaining amount after deducting the company was handed over to Qian Yiming, so that Qian Yiming would buy more shells to exchange for Thai baht.

The easiest way to make a profit by speculating on the Thai baht is to short the Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot market. It is expected that the Thai baht will depreciate against the US dollar at some point in the future. In advance, a large amount of Thai baht will be borrowed from relevant channels and sold Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot market to obtain US dollars. After the Thai baht depreciates, buy Thai baht from the foreign exchange spot market to repay the loan. The remaining US dollars after repaying the principal and interest will constitute profit. Moreover, a deposit transaction can be used in the transaction, that is, the transaction amount will be enlarged through the leverage of margin, so US$1.1 billion can be amplified to 11 billion for trading.

Yang Xing's previous investment of more than 2 billion US dollars was adopted in foreign exchange futures trading, that is, forward contracts borrowed from investment banks to sell off. Before the forward contract is delivered, foreign currencies depreciate and reverse operations can close positions to make a profit. However, before the crisis comes, futures contracts lack buyers, and trading volume will shrink. In addition to those who can accurately foresee the crisis three to five months in advance, ordinary currency speculators rarely involve it, but the huge profits it brings are not comparable to those in the cash exchange market.

Generally speaking, only Soros' quantum fund, Qian Yiming's old boss Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund and other funds with great wealth dare to take risks. In actual operations, they will first short the country's bonds, stocks and stocks in a country's securities market, and then short the country's currency in the foreign exchange spot and forward markets. When the country's currency depreciates and the country's securities market collapses, they will make double profits. In 1992, in the battle to defend the pound, the empire of the past was unable to preserve its own currency. Soros and others used the same trick again, how could the Thai government stop it?

Qian Yiming leaned closer to Yang Xing's ear at this time, "I just received the news that my original boss Julian Robertson has been in Hong Kong these days. I doubt that his next target will choose Hong Kong dollars. Do you see if we will build some Hong Kong dollars positions?" Yang Xing frowned and put away his relaxed expression. He thought to himself that Julian Robertson is coming, it's really a big trouble!

After 1997, everyone was well aware of Soros' name, but in fact, in this storm, Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund brought no less lethality than Soros' Quantum Fund. Julian Robertson claims to be the "godfather" of hedge funds. He founded Tiger Fund in May 1980, focusing on "global investment". In the late 1980s and early 1990s, he accurately predicted that after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the German stock market rose sharply, the Japanese stock market reached its peak, and the global bond market disaster in 1992, Tiger Fund began to achieve amazing results. His most famous battle was in 1992 when he joined forces with Quantum Fund to snipe pounds, liras and other currencies, making a lot of profits. Later, he was sought after by investors. In 1997, Tiger Fund reached a scale of 20 billion US dollars, becoming the world's largest hedge fund.

Of course, such a person who comes to Hong Kong at this time will not be a roaming trip. If it is really like Qian Yiming said that he came for Hong Kong dollars, Yang Xing certainly cannot be careless. While watching Qian Yiming's traders desperately contact the trading scene by phone, he was considering countermeasures.

At this time, the Singapore international currency trading market closed at 4 pm, and the Thai baht exchange rate against the US dollar was fixed at 1 to 31.87, but the world financial market trading is said to be "money never sleeps". Trading markets such as Tokyo, New York, and London will open one after another. The Thai baht trade will be passed down like a drum and passing flowers, and finally smashing a large number of unlucky guys. The trader shouted at various professional instructions on the phone at the top of his voice. Even Yang Xing, who is just a first-time foreign exchange trading, may not understand it, and the beauties under his command are even more blind. He thinks that this professional work is still left to professionals to take care of. It is not very meaningful to stay here, so it is better to find a way to deal with Julian Robertson, the old fox.
Chapter completed!