Chapter 735 Gold Futures
In 2003, domestic GDP growth returned to the double-digit growth range, but the old problems followed, and the overheating of the economy began to show signs of overheating. Since 2003, domestic real estate investment has grown rapidly, real estate prices have risen sharply, unreasonable housing supply structure is prominent, and the order of the real estate market has fallen into chaos. In order to stabilize people's hearts, the government has frequently introduced many policies and measures to regulate the real estate market. Since the second half of 2003, the government has strictly started with the two gates of land and credit to control the rapid growth of real estate investment.
In June 2003, the People's Bank of China issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Real Estate Credit Business", proposing that in order to prevent the overheating of the economy, it mainly controls the investment in fixed asset that grows too fast, and then controls the growth of real estate investment. This document has greatly impacted the real estate industry, resulting in the breakdown of the capital chain of some real estate development companies, the trend of speculation in real estate has temporarily stopped, and the idle capital of society has transferred from the real estate speculation group to other places on a large scale.
However, given the lack of domestic investment channels and the reality of capital regulation, it is too risky for these speculative capitals to go abroad. The domestic stock market is now deeply trapped in a big bear market since 2001. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by about 1,300 points. The rumors of large and small non-stock markets have made investors really afraid to take action. In the face of helplessness, many people have to choose some off-site projects, such as antiques, Pu'er tea and even cultural walnuts, which caused the prices of these investment products to soar, which has been very popular in the society.
However, these investment products have common characteristics. They are either difficult to make valuation and cash, or the market is limited, the plate is too small and easily subject to policy changes and fluctuations. It seems that only futures trading is in full swing, especially after the central government agreed to launch joint futures trading in Shanghai, commodities and resource commodities across the country have opportunities for investment arbitrage and preservation, becoming a new round of investment hotspot.
At this time, the launch of gold futures by Shanghai United Futures Exchange hit the thoughts of many investors, adding a lot of fire to the hot futures market. By integrating with the international gold market, not only can it find a way to exchange US dollar assets in domestic and foreign exchange reserves for gold and gain influence on the pricing power of international gold prices, but it also provides a brand new financial management channel for many wealthy families in China. It can be said that both sides are very happy. With Yang Xing's guidance, Zheng Feilong, who first implemented the proposal in China, was naturally well received praise from all parties. Now Yang Xing wants to see if his theory is in line with the actual situation.
Yang Xing proposed that in addition to the country's opening of gold futures trading in China, of course, he also has his own advantages. On the surface, gold futures are simple to operate, and you can participate in whether you have a foundation or not. You can see it immediately. It is easier than stock trading, and there is no need to select stocks. It is closely related to the trend of the US dollar and crude oil, and it is relatively easy to analyze and judge, which is very consistent with the psychology of domestic retail investors who are more speculative.
The most important thing is that the gold market is relatively concentrated and fair. The prices of futures trading centers and regions in the world are basically the same under the open conditions. The world is speculating on this kind of gold, with the total international transaction volume reaching about 20 trillion US dollars every day. Generally, dealers cannot make trouble, which greatly reduces the occurrence of domestic "black dealers" and "rat trading" phenomena. In this market, they can only rely on their own vision and technology. In addition, the unique characteristics of the futures market that can make big profits and win ten by betting, and only a small amount of capital can be used to buy and sell full gold. At the same time, the gold markets such as New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and London have achieved 24-hour trading throughout the day, allowing investors' capital turnover to continue, which is very attractive to investors.
Yang Xing also wanted to use this to let Xingfu Investment find a new financial path in China. Because domestic financial regulatory measures have many restrictions on private enterprises, although Xingfu Investment is strong, it has no advantage in competing with financial institutions with state-owned assets in the stock market and futures market. However, once the Shanghai United Futures Exchange relaxes gold futures, the situation will be very different.
Zhongxing Group, the parent company of Xingfu Investment, is a big player in the gold market that owns overseas gold mines and participates in the formulation of London's base gold prices. Even if it cannot manipulate international gold prices. However, it is much easier to take the lead in seeking profits and avoid harm based on the trend of the international gold market than to take the lead in the domestic market. Sooner or later, the Shanghai gold futures market will quote according to international practices, and is affected by various international political and economic factors such as the US dollar, oil, central bank reserves, war risks and other emergencies. International gold prices are often in amid violent fluctuations. With the behind-the-scenes guidance of Yang Xing, the reborn, and the guidance of a huge international financial expert team, it can completely take the lead in the domestic gold futures market.
For this reason, Yang Xing and Zheng Feilong talked about the history and current situation of the international gold futures market for a long time. In order to give Zheng Feilong confidence, Yang Xing talked about the launch of futures trading in order to break the London market's monopoly on gold prices. It is now a big deal. The traditional Asian gold futures markets in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, such as the traditional Asian gold futures market, either fell into a trough because of their small market size, or became a vassal of the London gold market due to lack of pioneering and enterprising spirit.
Relying on the huge mainland market, there is not only the growing demand for the consumption of gold after the general public becomes rich, but also the strong interest of investors in investing in gold futures and financial products such as "paper gold". In addition, the domestic gold production continues to rise, becoming the world's number one gold producer is just around the corner, with markets and supply, and the huge driving force for the country's foreign exchange reserves to purchase gold. In time, the Shanghai gold market can completely become the world's gold capital with London and New York.
After giving Zheng Feilong enough encouragement in gold futures, the two's topics turned to the rumored "CNOOC" incident, because this is related to the upcoming Shanghai fuel oil futures project and also plays a role as a weather vane for the country's reopening of oil futures in the future.
In the second half of 2003, China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Co., Ltd., which was listed in Singapore, suffered a huge loss of US$550 million due to its participation in oil derivatives transactions. The company faced a catastrophe. The position of president was removed by China Aviation Oil. He was detained by Singapore authorities for investigation, causing a sensation in the entire East Asian financial market. In his previous life, this incident had to be delayed until the end of this year, but due to the appearance of Yang Xing, the butterfly effect he produced has gradually affected many aspects of the original history, which changed the time of many major events. He himself also asked the bottom line about when and why this incident broke out, but was more concerned about the impact on the domestic launch of oil futures plans.
Zheng Feilong is located in the center and has a very clear understanding of this incident involving the failure of major overseas investments of core central enterprises. He explained the whole story in a few words. In order to compete with Hong Kong for the position of the Asian financial center, Singapore adopted measures to relax financial supervision and encourage financial innovation. It quickly attracted a large number of overseas funds to launch a series of financial derivatives transactions in Singapore. Jack Lesson, a trader who famously led to the bankruptcy of the British Bahrain Bank, had an accident in Singapore.
Around 1995, Singapore formed a unique paper market, some like financial derivatives, but traded off-market. The main trading types include naphtha, gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene and fuel oil. The daily trading volume reached about 100 million tons, of which about 80% were speculative transactions and about 20% were value-preserving transactions.
Since my country has become a major import petroleum product country, and the domestic market has been controlled by the three-barrel oil planning system for a long time, if you want to bypass them, you can only find a way in the international market. At present, in order to conduct stable international procurement, most of the powerful fuel oil traders in southern my country have entrust overseas agents to conduct Singapore fuel oil paper goods transactions to achieve the purpose of arbitrage preservation.
According to statistics, the transaction volume of domestic enterprises in my country has accounted for more than one-third of the market share of Singapore's paper goods market. Although the market demand and actual transaction volume are large, due to restrictions on national policies, most of these transactions are currently in a gray area. Except for a very small number of large companies with legal qualifications, most of them are entrusted to agents to transfer their hands behind the scenes through different methods. Many times, they even have to buy black market foreign exchange for transactions. The openness of transactions and the equality of transaction information acquisition are not guaranteed, so the overall value preservation effect is poor, and domestic enterprises have very little influence on the market.
Among them, AVIC is a market maker for trading aviation kerosene option products in the Singapore paper goods market. He is very good at it. The transaction in the paper goods market is usually a credit transaction. Performance guarantees rely entirely on the credibility of both parties. Since the previous year, AVIC entered the oil options trading market and made a lot of money at first. However, as the internal control mechanism of the company failed, the president had the final say alone, and when international oil prices began to rise rapidly, AVIC, which bets on the decline of oil prices, suddenly suffered heavy losses. After discovering the loss, its president still insisted on his own and continued to postpone delivery, resulting in a rise in margin and finally capsized!
Things are not complicated. Although there are lessons, Yang Xing has always believed that Chinese companies must pay some tuition fees and suffer to know that the water is deep and shallow. This is just one of the small waves. It is just that this matter has shocked the country. In order to no longer be controlled by others, the call for restoration of the domestic oil futures market that was established in 1993 is becoming increasingly popular.
In fact, long before the outbreak of the AVIC Oil incident, there were frequent cases of international energy giants forcing Chinese companies in Singapore's fuel oil and paper goods market, which often caused losses to Chinese importers. The AVIC Oil incident warned people that the overseas derivatives market was in great storms, and domestic companies often had disadvantaged positions in overseas derivatives trading due to the trading venues overseas and their counterparties were strong. Chinese companies competed with multinational companies in the overseas derivatives market, and their opponents were influenced by their own competition rules for many years. In such a competitive environment, Chinese companies that lack experience and strength were at a disadvantage as soon as they came on stage and it was difficult to win the game. If you want to change the status quo, the fastest way is to accelerate the construction of China's own oil futures system...rt!~!
Chapter completed!