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Chapter 794: The Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

On the day Paulson announced the rescue of Freddie and Fannie Mai, Yang Xing, Qian Yiming, Fang Le and others were waiting in Yang Xing's "Villa No. 1" in Shanghai. When everyone held their breath and listened to the news, there was applause at the scene. Qian Yiming said to Yang Xing with relief: "After all the time, it's the will of heaven. Brother Yang asked me to go to Wall Street to sue for a slander, which made me feel so scared. Now it's worth the price."

If you want to convince an economic animal like Qian Yiming to help Yang Xing, it is absolutely not OK to just talk about favors. People like them can only be impressed by interests. The price offered by Yang Xing was to fully control a large hedge fund established after Yang Xing woke up, betting on short selling of US subprime mortgage securities and short selling in the future financial crisis. The investment in this fund was as high as 10 billion US dollars in the first phase. Now, with Yang Xing lobbying all forces to join, it is almost over 100 billion US dollars. It is really a temptation that people like Qian Yiming cannot resist.

Since the two have cooperated in the Asian financial crisis, it has been almost ten years since Qian Yiming's net worth has been worth billions of dollars. If he had not cooperated with Yang Xing many times and had confidence in his vision, Qian Yiming would not have been the leader to offend the Wall Street boss. Now that the two houses have been taken over by the government, it marks that the subprime mortgage crisis has been officially recognized by the government. Their plan has finally seen the dawn. Now that the news has spread, the short-selling market has risen sharply. The leader is the big fund led by Qian Yiming. Imagine that it will cause the world's financial market to turn upside down in the future, Qian Yiming suddenly felt extremely excited.

The subprime mortgage crisis came so rapidly that there was almost no preparation for others except Yang Xing. As the news of the rescue of the two houses was released, financial institutions around the world realized that many asset-based securities in their hands would have problems. As mentioned earlier, the beginning of asset securitization was the use of the housing mortgage loans they used to lend to American housing backed bonds or mortgage securitization.mbs asset securitization products.

The largest issuer of mbs is the main institutions in the US secondary loan market such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac. In order to attract investors, the mbs interest rates offered by 2 houses are 137 basic points higher than the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates, which are 137 basic points higher than the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates, and the high returns have attracted investors from all over the world. Take Lehman Brothers, one of the five major Wall Street investment banks, as an example. The mbs index that the company offered to investors shows that regardless of interest rates rise and fall, the index has been positive for ten consecutive years since 1996, and the worst rate of return was 2.1% in 1999, while the global bond index at the same time was negative in 1999, 2001 and 2005.

As long as people with a little investment mind, they will understand that this is completely impossible. Lehman is operating against the market. There is no reason to make steady profits but not lose money. There must be a bad year, but the price difference between them is filled by Lehman itself. When the world is good, this strategy seems to work. Lehman earns more and loses less. The practice expands with the effect of dominoes. But now, when something happens to the two houses, even the most optimistic economists have come to the conclusion that they will shrink the front, and this vigorous asset securitization movement has come to an abrupt end.

Now the subprime mortgage crisis has swept the US housing market. As the crisis deepens, a large number of houses that cannot afford to repay their loans have been seized and recycled by banks and quickly sold to the market to repay the loans released. However, because the excessive supply of houses suddenly appeared in the market, the suppression of housing prices further fell, so more houses were taken back by the court for auction or simply abandoned. At that time, the huge amount of money spent on buying houses was completely wafted into a lot of bad accounts, and banks and owners became losers, thousands of funds were turned into bubbles, and the liquidity of the entire financial system was like a river, which affected the world.

The crisis of the two-bedrooms came from this, but Yang Xing still felt that it was far from enough. To be honest, the subprime mortgage crisis was just a turbulent opening whistle. If he wanted to make the international financial market boil violently, he still needed to add more fire. His eyes had long set a new target. In November 2005, as central banks around the world injected more than 300 billion US dollars into the market within 48 hours to save the market, although the stock market and gold market continued to decline, it would at least temporarily suppress a lot of the storm caused by the two-bedroom houses. The US Treasury Department is secretly arranging a stress test for major financial institutions across the country to see how big the deficit caused by the subprime mortgage is and how wide the scope of the involvement is. It is rumored in the market that the US government will take more measures to support the market. Paulson is now running at the Congress and the White House, and has become a hero who turns the tide.

The Balance Firm, which was established not long ago, made a big splash because it used the behind-the-scenes boss Yang Xing's accurate prediction of the causes and process of the subprime mortgage crisis to expose the subprime mortgage veil that many financial institutions are sought after and boldly challenge the current international credit assessment system. Now there is a vague trend of challenging the three major credit rating agencies, and no one dares to take the report issued by Balance Firm seriously.

Now, as soon as its monthly forecast of the world economic trend and reports on countries and multinational companies around the world are released, it will attract attention from all parties. Many financial practitioners want to carefully analyze each word and carefully understand the meaning of it. Just when everyone thought they could breathe a sigh of relief, the monthly report of Balance Office once again put a huge rock on the fragile market confidence.

Because Greece and Goldman Sachs had previously made the "currency swap contract" incident, the EU was forced to intervene in the investigation of Greece's fraud of its own economic data in order to join the EU. In September, preliminary investigation results were released to admit that the matter was true, and EU countries had to hold a series of meetings to discuss how to deal with it. However, before the EU, which has always been slow to come to a conclusion, the market responded as soon as possible.

After the Greek scandal broke out, investors from all over the world were afraid of the depreciation of Greek government bonds and would rather sell all Greek government bonds at a discount. This in turn caused the market to lose confidence in Greek government bonds. S&P, among the three major rating structures that were previously questioned by the financial scandal, finally made up its mind and announced on November 2 that it had significantly lowered the Greek sovereign credit rating, from AA to CCC, which was only one step away from junk bonds.

Influenced by this news, the Prime Minister resigned, the government collapsed, and a new election began. Unfortunately, the economic crisis could not be completely resolved by political campaigns. After the newly elected Greek opposition party came to power, the Prime Minister was surprised to find that his ex had left him a big mess, even if he tried his best to do so, he was helpless. Because the financing channels of the international financial market have been cut off due to the subprime mortgage crisis, the previous method of issuing new bonds to dismantle the east wall to compensate for the west wall to repay the debt failed. In desperation, the Greek new Prime Minister had to confess the facts to the outside world and ask the EU for help.

That month, Greek finance minister announced that its fiscal deficit to GDP ratio in 2005 would be 13.7%, rather than the 6% originally predicted. The Greek government announced that if it does not receive rescue loans before June next year, it will not be able to refinance the upcoming 20 billion euros of government bonds that are about to expire. Due to concerns that the Greek government's market value is about US$300 to US$400 billion, almost no investors dare to buy new Greek government bonds. Greek banks, which mainly rely on Greek government bonds to finance mortgages, suddenly lost their source of funds and could not get another penny from other places. The shortage of liquidity in the money market suddenly intensified, and the Greek sovereign debt crisis finally broke out.

In addition to the gloating argument that "you see, I'll say something will go wrong", the subsequent monthly report of Tianping Firm once again questioned the sovereign debts of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Iceland and Ireland, and even caused the EU and Iceland governments to issue public statements to severely refute it. However, the three of them became tigers. Tianping Firm has repeatedly raised the problems with the sovereign debts of these European countries. In addition, it accurately judged the subprime mortgage crisis, and many people were willing to listen to their doubts.

Now the three major credit rating agencies have begun to tend to their arguments, and the market can no longer ignore the European sovereign debt issues as before and ignore them. Many investors have begun to secretly take over the European debts in their hands. The subprime mortgage and European debt crisis have combined, making the already scammers of financial market even more shaky.

This time, even if the Federal Reserve teamed up with major central banks around the world to jointly rescue the market, the effect was no longer significant. In just three days after Greece announced its debt default, the market value of stock markets in various places fell by nearly one trillion US dollars! The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have invested in the financial market for tens of billions of dollars in several consecutive times, but they still cannot save the situation. They are criticized by the outside world as a tactic of adding fuel to the oil, which is a drop in the bucket. The Bush Cabinet is in a mess. If the two wars outside can delay time, involving the subprime mortgage problem of thousands of households in the United States, many people have proposed that they must immediately launch a package of solutions.

At a time of controversy, the first domino in the financial market fell and quickly pushed to a large number of pieces. On November 22, North Rock Bank, one of the five famous mortgage banks in the UK, had a shocking run in the world. North Rock Bank, a bank that once ranked among the top 500 in the world. North Rock Bank is different from most banks relying on depositor deposits to provide mortgage loans to home buyers. It mainly relies on borrowing from other banks and selling mortgage securities in the financial market to raise funds.

As a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, Beiyan Bank was unable to borrow money in the market, and its stock price fell by nearly 70% in a few days. After the rumors came out, a large-scale customer run occurred, resulting in more than 3 billion pounds of funds flowing out, and almost went bankrupt on the spot. However, the British government found that after the bankruptcy of North Rock Bank, the property of hundreds of thousands of families in the UK would be taken back. The social impact was too bad, so it had to personally rescue it. In the end, Beiyan Bank was protected from bankruptcy under the protection of the British Central Bank and was quickly nationalized by the government, setting the largest nationalization case in the UK.

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