Chapter 200 On the Price of Oil
In the small internal conference hall of the Sports Reform Commission, only more than 20 people sat around and talked in a low voice. Ding Zhipeng also turned his head and whispered to exchange views with others.
The Reform Commission of the Social Reform Commission, which was born with institutional reform, was the most powerful institution in China at this time. Their research and investigation reports, while improving the direction of national reform, also determine the fate of many ministries and commissions. For example, the reform direction of "changing the functions of the Cretaceous Government" made the Ministry of Petroleum, the Ministry of Nuclear Industry, the Ministry of Electronics, and the Ministry of Coal disappear from the sequence of state ministries and commissions, but retained the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Textile Industry, and the Ministry of Water Resources, and the Ministry of Materials...
More than 20 people present had proud capital. They were all department-level cadres who had experienced the institutional reform of the State Council in 1988. Ding Zhipeng was also among the ranks of this year, and he rose by an arrow last year.
Organizing this report meeting was also a new measure for Ding Zhipeng. During the waiting period, he whispered to his colleagues about the situation of Sucheng and Dahua Industrial. It should be said that while he helped and influenced Dahua Industrial, he was also helped and influenced by Dahua Industrial. Therefore, when he saw the newly built 7,500-ton offshore drilling platform of Dahua Industrial, he had a new understanding of the future direction.
Others have no similar experiences, so they just talk about what has happened recently, just to be a pastime before waiting.
Just as the clock hand on the top of the conference room passed ten o'clock, Su Cheng pushed the door open and entered.
Ding Zhipeng immediately stopped discussing, turned around with a smile, and said, "Dr. Su, you are here too on time. Come and sit here. We are a roundtable."
When Su Cheng saw that everyone was indeed moving their chairs into a circle, so he was polite and sat next to Ding Zhipeng and smiled: "I came at 9 o'clock. The guard read the time stated in the introduction letter and refused to let me in. I was not allowed to enter until 9 o'clock."
Ding Zhipeng laughed and said, "This shows that the elites in our small conference room are all the treasures of the country and are protected closely."
"I have been famous for the elites of the National Social Security Reform Commission for a long time." Su Cheng said politely.
"Are you in our small conference room now?" Ding Zhipeng laughed.
Su Cheng said embarrassedly: "I'm here to make a report."
As he said that, he opened the folder. Giving a report in front of the National Social Security Reform Commission's think tank is a challenge in itself. It's a bit like the final result of making a report in the US Senate may have a huge impact. Whether it is individual or collective, it is a rare opportunity.
Ding Zhipeng nodded slightly and said, "Okay, let's listen to the development outline of Dahua Industrial."
Su Cheng used orderly movements to relieve his tension, smiled and said intently: "Today, what I mainly want to say is actually the construction and development of world marine equipment..."
He looked around for a week and said without any rush: "The world's industrial transfer is a certain thing. The first thing to transfer is ship manufacturing. Japan, South Korea and Singapore have benefited from this. Although China is one step behind, we are on the front line of the world's marine equipment transfer. If we can seize this opportunity, we can stand on the front line of the world's industrial transfer, and we will not wait 10 years and 20 years later, waiting for Japan, South Korea and Singapore to transfer industries to us..."
Only industrialized and strategic content can attract members of the National Committee for the Reform Commission. Su Cheng only said two paragraphs, which attracted everyone's attention. At the beginning, his eyes turned around.
Su Cheng prepared very well. After a quick look at the manuscript, he continued: "The marine equipment industry is a hot industry, whether in the past, present, or in the future, and it will become more and more popular... Why?"
He smiled, his voice slowed down, and said, "Because the oil heat at sea. As I said before, the rise in oil prices is a very clear matter. To develop oil at sea, you must have good equipment, which is completely different from the situation on land. On land, people are not particularly passive in the environment. There are always some relatively simple equipment that can achieve relatively complex tasks, which is actually becoming more and more difficult..."
"But, on the sea, in the deep sea, without very good equipment, nothing will be achieved." Su Cheng stopped and continued: "People are in the sea, just like ants in the desert, and there is no need to make much preparations. Therefore, they can only continue to invest and increase. For oil companies, as long as the price of offshore oil does not exceed the price of oil, they have enough impulse to engage in high-risk, high-investment and high-return industries. Why? Because oil prices will continue to rise..."
"I noticed that Mr. Su seems to be a staunch supporter of rising oil prices? Can you tell me?" The official on the right held a notebook and listened very seriously.
Since the number of people is small, such reports will be interrupted. Sucheng looked at everyone's eager expression and nodded with a smile: "It seems that you want to listen to the report on oil prices more."
"If oil prices really rise, the value of marine equipment is unquestionable." Ding Zhipeng answered Su Cheng's question.
Su Cheng nodded slightly. He still underestimated the level of these guys. For them, there is no problem with the value of rising oil prices and launching offshore construction. The only thing that cannot be analyzed is the oil price.
In fact, apart from time travelers like him, in the 1990s, there were very few people who firmly believed that oil prices would rise. On the one hand, it was due to historical reasons, and on the other hand, there were too many analysis of oil prices, and there were so many factors that determine, but the weights could not be distinguished. The market was unpredictable. Many people even derived the idea of conspiracy theories.
In fact, general trends like oil prices should be the background of conspiracy exploitation, not the direct result of conspiracy. Just like the story of Napoleonic Wars and Rothschild, Rothschild can take advantage of the results of Napoleonic Wars, but if he directly decides the direction of the war, the effort would be too great, contrary to the low cost, high risk and high output of the conspiracy.
After pondering for a while, Su Cheng closed the report and smiled: "We talk about oil prices. In fact, oil is a commodity after all, and its rise and fall are ultimately determined by supply. Any other factor can only determine the short-term and not the long-term. If there is no influence, as far as the current development of the oil industry is concerned, it will take about 50 years, or even more than 50 years to complete onshore oil. But the Arab countries will not allow us to dig onshore oil."
Everyone laughed.
Su Cheng also smiled and said, "Therefore, there are two points that can determine the price of oil. In terms of demand, the degree of development of the world economy, and in terms of supply, OPEC and they account for about two-thirds of the world's reserves and more than 40% of the sales volume. The world economy must be developing upward, but how is OPEC's supply? How they price is actually a science. First of all, we cannot reduce production too much, otherwise the world economy will suffer, and it will be difficult for them to live. At the same time, if they reduce production too much, everyone will use alternative energy. The more the price rises, the more alternative energy, which will eventually lead to a reduction in demand and create an unnecessary risk of price fluctuations. So in my opinion, the key is, how does OPEC control this degree?"
Everyone stared at the breath, and the only sound in the room was the rustling of the pen. It was like the class that gave the answers to the exam.
Sucheng was indeed giving them the answer, the direct answer. He paused for only a few seconds and continued: "For OPEC, I think one of their policies will perfectly solve the problem of oil pricing. I'm not sure if they have said it now, but I think they will always say it."
Sucheng did not prepare information on oil prices in advance, so he briefly explained and said: "This pricing method is actually detailed in Marx's works, about land rent."
Once he talked about Marx, everyone became interested. Nothing else, any action of the Sports Reform Commission was to be found in Marx's original work.
"Land and oil are very similar in scarcity." Sucheng did not talk about Marx again, and turned around and said, "I think the most important part of OPEC's pricing theory is that they pointed out that oil prices are not determined by oil itself, but by alternative energy. Think about it, with the current price of alternative energy, will the trend of oil prices increase or rise?"
"According to your theory, the price of offshore oil is actually a replacement for land oil?" someone asked agilely.
"That's right." Su Cheng nodded affirmatively and said: "Oopek's use of this method can not only increase the price of oil, but also kill all alternative energy. Because the demand for oil is too large, oil will wrap around alternative energy and rise all the way until the technology to completely replace oil fuel comes. Therefore, the trend of rising oil prices will continue for 20 years and 30 years..."
“Will not drop?”
"Short-term decline, perhaps, long-term decline, impossible." Su Cheng said in a flash: "Shallow sea oil, deep sea oil, polar oil... Everyone, this is a kind of competition. In the past, we could not mine our own oil and save it for future generations. Later, when everyone started to produce oil in the high seas and began to produce oil in the Arctic and Antarctic, we did not participate, and we could only watch the rise of new colonies..."
Everyone was in their thirties and forties in their thirties and forties. Once the heated discussion began, there was no intention to stop.
Qi Meng sat opposite Su Cheng, listening to Su Cheng's words while watching his expressions. As a young cadre who came up from the grassroots level, he had a lot of experience, so he had more mastery of human nature and tended to consider human factors when doing things.
When he saw Sucheng and listened to Sucheng's analysis of oil and offshore engineering, his brain naturally made an analysis - this guy was a powerful fighter.
No matter what tier such a fighter is, he will fight hard, constantly defeat the people around him, and keep rising. No wonder he gave up his generous life in ministries and commissions and chose the oil industry. No wonder he was able to fight in and out of the oil barrels of the world's oil giants.
Qi Meng couldn't help but think that if Su Cheng was not born in an era of fierce change, but in a period of stable development, his fighting spirit might have caused unnecessary failure in his life. Peking University is also a very good starting point, but unfortunately his background is average, otherwise he would have played a significant role in entering the Sports Reform Commission.
His brain was also thinking simultaneously. When everyone was satisfied with his speech, he took the initiative to ask: "Su Cheng, what you mean is you want to convince us to increase investment in marine oil equipment?"
"It's not enough to just give money, there will be someone and policy."
Ding Zhipeng smiled and said, "We went to the bottom to investigate. Generally speaking, we need policies, people, and money. You will do the opposite today."
The crowds of people around were laughing.
Ding Zhipeng clapped his hands and said, "I heard that the newly formed COSCO Group of COSCO Shipping seems to have carried out a nationwide technical research. What? Not enough?"
"COSCO Group can be said to have solved the problem of 70% of people, and we also want a policy."
“What policy?”
"Our Dahua Industrial wants to merge a large state-owned enterprise." Now, despite various reforms such as shareholding reform, the Central Committee has always adhered to the principle of focusing on the big and letting go of the small, and many large enterprises do not allow private capital to enter at all. In addition, shareholding reform and complete acquisition are also different things. In fact, it is more like capital owners, allowing part of the shares to the operator, which is like equity incentives.
The small conference room fell into a brief silence.
It was Qi Meng who spoke up and broke the silence and said, "Which company do you want to merge?"
"Tianjin Petroleum Machinery General Factory. I heard that they have fallen into business difficulties." Su Cheng said that it was the Jinshi General Factory where Du Lijun is located. They are several oil equipment companies in China, and many of the equipment they produce can be used at sea. Over-expansion and great success are Du Lijun's character flaws, especially in state-owned enterprises. The knots that can be big but not small, and can be up or down have caused the ever-expanding Jinshi General Factory to lose serious blood loss. Although it has not reached the level of bankruptcy, the good days of the past have long been gone.
The current Jinshi General Factory has to borrow from the bank every year. It started with the year-end bonus for loans at the end of the year, and now it is the off-season salary for loans. Anyone familiar with state-owned enterprises knows that such factories are on the verge of collapse.
After hearing this, Ding Zhipeng said, "The level of Jinshi General Factory is very high, we cannot answer, we will report it to the above."
"I'm not in a hurry, take it slowly." Su Cheng smiled and said, "I merged with the Jinshi General Factory to develop the third-generation offshore drilling platform. I can only say that if I give the Jinshi General Factory to me, I can create China's own third-generation and fourth-generation offshore drilling platform. At that time, we will produce the oil in the South China Sea by ourselves, and we will not look at the foreigners' eyes!"
"You have to be mentally prepared. Even if the above agrees, the Tianjin-Shi General Factory is not cheap, and the shareholding ratio is difficult to say."
"The country can keep 10% or 20%, so I will treat it as paying double taxes. No matter how much I want it, I will make one for myself." Su Cheng said half-jokingly.
Chapter completed!